Oscars Betting Tips
Each year in Los Angeles, all the beautiful people of Hollywood gather together to hand out gold-plated trophies and pat each other on the back in an event known as the Academy Awards. The first ceremony took place in 1929, and it’s grown into an annual pop culture phenomenon filled with fashion and pageantry. Some watch for the awards, while millions of others tune in to see what the celebs are wearing on the red carpet.
- Oscars Betting Tips
- Oscars Betting Tips 2019
- Oscars 2020 Betting Tips
- How To Bet On The Oscars
- Oscars Betting Tips 2020
In addition to watching the event, fans of gambling and/or cinema can also take advantage of Oscars betting. Most sportsbooks offer a smattering of options around awards season, and the savvy cinephile has an opportunity to clean up on a few well-placed underdog bets.
McConaughey is a worthy Best Actor favourite but there are reasons why some of Hollywood’s Academy Awards experts are tipping that Leonardo DiCaprio could upset at odds of 6.00 with Bet365 and Betfred. Among the DiCaprio disciples is Tom O’Neil, the Academy Awards tragic behind the GoldDerby website. It used to be that only a few sportsbooks would carry the lines for the Oscars, and they’d only offer up odds on the main awards. Nowadays, lines on the Oscars are readily available everywhere as betting on the awards show has grown in popularity. Understanding the Oscars’ Betting Lines. When you’re betting on the Oscars, it’s important. Johnny Avello loves the Academy Awards so much he wrote odds for conversation fodder before it was legal to bet on them. Now the sportsbook director at DraftKings can offer actionable lines to bettors in New Jersey and, as of Wednesday, in Indiana. Those are the only states to sanction betting on the Oscars. Oscar Betting Keys and Tips. Betting the Oscars is an exercise in due diligence and knowing where to turn to for the best in entertainment odds is key. Entertainment betting may be void of number.
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How Oscar Voting Works
Oscar winners are voted on by the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. There are around 6,000 members in this organization, 33% of which are comprised of former award nominees. The other 67% have been nominated by current members and voted in by the Academy’s governing body.
In most categories, nominees are determined by the members of that specific category. For example, directors determine the nominees for Best Director. The Best Picture nominees are voted on by all members, and categories such as Documentary and Foreign Film are selected by a special panel.
Once the nominees have been announced, members may vote in all available categories. The results are tabulated and announced during the annual telecast of the Oscars (held in late February). Winning or being nominated for an Oscar increases a film’s revenue, and male actors can enjoy a salary bump of up to 81%.
Academy Award Betting Options
Some sportsbooks offer a wide range of wagers for the Oscars, while some limit the number to one or two. The following are among the most common:
- Futures Winner – Some sites offer future bets on Oscar winners before the nominations are even announced. The odds are greater due to the level of uncertainty, but the potential payout is also higher.
- Outright Winner – These odds are released after the nominees have been announced, and they allow bettors to predict the outright winners for various categories. Best Picture and Best Actor are always a given, but some sites may take wagers on Screenplay, Cinematography, and even Best Animated Feature.
- Over/Under – If a film is nominated for multiple Oscars, expect an over/under to be available. In this style of wagering, the bettor must choose if the actual number of awards won will be higher or lower than the number listed by the oddsmaker.
- Proposition Bets – Also known as “prop bets,” this type of wager can cover a wide range of subject matter. Examples might include the over/under on the length of the show, the brand of dress worn by a celebrity, or whether or not the host takes a selfie with someone during the broadcast. Some oddsmakers can get rather wild with this option.
Predicting Oscar Winners
Some Academy Award winners come out of nowhere, but the outcome can often be predicted with a bit of patience and research. The best place to start is with earlier awards shows such as the Golden Globes and SAG. If a film or performer is consistently successful in the run-up to the Oscars, then they’re a good bet to take home the little statuette.
Hollywood loves a good message movie, so keep this in mind when picking your Best Picture candidate. Look for movies about war, slavery, and the Holocaust, as the members of the Academy seem to have a perpetual soft spot for any film involving an “issue” or human suffering.
Actors and actresses are also in a good position to take home an Oscar when they get to do a lot of “acting.” I’m talking about scene-stealing performances with lots of shouting and other slightly melodramatic behavior. Anything by Daniel Day-Lewis is a good example, as is any role that deals with deformities, handicaps, or a handsome performer being made to look ugly (Charlize Theron in Monster, for example).
Out of 16 sessions, I lost my money 4 times.
857 hands. 425 wins, 432 losses. Pushes were not counted.
At a $10 table this would have been a $1600 gain. The math seems to add up (49.6% win ratio). Was I just lucky? Can anyone tell me what is the odds are of losing your $200 if you play this system?
Mohammad Mahdian says:
I don’t know much about craps, but there is a 1965 paper by Tom Ferguson that solves a very similar problem for general MDPs:
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/papers/ruin.pdf
Fools Gold says:
March 18, 2007 at 9:45 am
A Statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliot Kbeiico. Columbia, MD 21046
As to the ‘max odds’ question: the mathematical answer seems to be that you should never make a line bet on which you are unable or unwilling to take full odds. Now ofcourse this can make the experience short and sweet if you lose that first bet or the first few bets. 100x odds are often publicity promotions with most players sticking to five or ten times odds, yet Casino Royale (LV-strip) offers one dollar line bets and 100 times odds. Best strategy: $606 PutBet. After three hits, take it down and leave the flat bets for the dealers.
“Better” depends upon goals and preferences. Few people actually trek to Vegas to put their entire bankroll on that first bet despite what mathematicians say is optimal strategy. More bets means more entertainment time, more free drinks, etc. The answer would also depend upon bet progression strategies that you intended to employ. If all you are ‘comfortable’ with is a table minimum bet with five times odds, then go for that. A line bet followed by two come bets would be adequate to stay in the game with your bankroll and catch any ‘hot streaks’. Hedge systems don’t make sense. Grinders don’t really do well anyway.
what you want to maximize is the overall mean length: that is the number of rolls before exhausting your bankroll or making your pre-determined win-goal.
At 5 dollar bets with two times odds, Hoyle’s Press and Oscar would be the two best systems, though Ponzer, in third place, would be preferable overall.
Best thing would be to play at a slower table where there are lots of grinders who will slow things down even more. That maximizes your time at the table more cheaply than switching to a Patrick Right system.
The reference in comment4 carried out simulations to 800 rolls. I would ofcourse question whether this is really enough.
When a statistics professor had a pair of shaved dice manufactured to precision standards he found that the ‘edge’ could not be detected in fewer than one million rolls, so I wonder if any Monte Carlo simulation would really prove anything.
URL for comment Four:
http://www.conjelco.com/downloads/elliott-paper.pdf
A statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliott.
Elliott paper is also available in:
Finding the Edge: Mathematical and Quantitative Analysis of Gambling (Institute of Gambling & Commercial Gaming) (Hardcover)
by Olaf Vancura (Editor), William Eadington (Editor), Judy Cornelius (Editor)
However, I need a clarification: if your bankroll is reduced to 20 but your next bet should be 30:
(a) do you bet 20, or exceed your bankroll and bet 30;
(b) if you bet 20, and then win, is your next bet 30 (i.e. 10 more than what you actually bet) or 40 (i.e. 10 more than what you 'should have' bet)?
I tested it out myself and found that the system seems to work. The system is just a Oscar's grind with these limits: 1. Start with exactly 20 times the minimum bet. 2. Walk away from the table when you double your money. I tried it out on the simulator and these were my results:
what game did you play?
This is easily simulated BTW. $200 bankroll and $10 unit bets in Craps
I get 55% chance of a session ruin playing with no odds. The odds would make this way more interesting I would think.
(this can also be setup as a Markov chain for ruin or quit at $400 as an example)
Stewart N. Ethier
The Doctrine of Chances
Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling
Has a few sections on this Oscar system for the probability of winning 1 unit with a max table bet of 500 units
(requires a very large bankroll too)
more than the OP
Fun and interesting reading. from page 288
'This leads to
a recursive algorithm that is well suited to numerical computation for large
M. For example, if M = 500, the system has 41,917,000 equations. Nevertheless,
a numerical solution is feasible, and when p = 244/495, it has been
found that Q(1, 1) ≈ 0.999740807832.'
he uses some other parameters for his calculation too about when to abort the system
a very high probability of winning one unit one time while risking a massive loss with a low probability of losing
sounds all too familiar
Sally
Oscars Betting Tips
For even-money bets on double-zero roulette, it's about a 35.2% success rate
For a game with 1% house edge (winning probability = 49.5%), it's about 46.22% success.
the original Oscar played Craps from what I have read.
what game did you play?
This is easily simulated BTW. $200 bankroll and $10 unit bets in Craps
I get 55% chance of a session ruin playing with no odds.
a craps player just flat betting $10 trying to double a $200 bankroll
success = 36.22%
=1/((q/p)^b_x+1)
b(x)units: 20
p=244/495
q=1-p
But we know the Oscar bettor raises the bet after a win one unit or less to hit the one unit win goal before starting the progression all over again
The Oscar example I showed had an average bet of almost $20
That is how he was able to have a higher probability of doubling the $200 bankroll
(betting it all one time would give a 49.3% success rate)
How about the flat bettor now betting $20. That gives a 10 unit bankroll
success = 42.96%
closer to Oscar system
Is the Oscar in my example 'better' than flat betting?
better = ?
how fast is ruin with Oscar compared to flat betting?
that is another question some may be interested in. time playing instead of how much can I win.
different bankrolls (and bet sizes) and win goals and time goals mean way different results
your mileage and fun will vary
Oscars Betting Tips 2019
Oscar
'Named after a hot dog, you poor man, you poor, poor man'
many LOVE hot dogs
Sally
I used a strategy card to play a perfect strategy. I have a Vegas trip coming up and I'm just looking for a way to maximize my play time and win some money if I can.
just flat bet to maximize play time (or no bet at times if they will allow this) and have lots of fun. you win by luck and basic strategy. better than a rabbit's foot.I understand that this system is probably flawed in some way, I just don't have the mathematical skills to prove or disprove it. The data I collected had peeked my interest. If I am only risking $200 at a time, my risk of ruin seems quite low.
all systems are 'flawed' playing against a house edge game.the number of times you played was low.
like flipping a coin 10 times and betting on Heads. one session you could get 6 or 7 or even more Heads.
You may now think you are a master coin flipper and can win money flipping coins.
Play more sessions and you will see those sessions that have more Tails than Heads.
until then, have fun playing and if you win, winning is only because
and not because you have some system that if everyone played would close all the casinos or force then to change all the games.
Oscars 2020 Betting Tips
some more info from one that runs simulations for blackjack using many different betting systems
7-systems-and-3-ways-to-play-blackjack
I too will be in Las Vegas at the end of this month.
do not win all the money, I want to play and win some too
How To Bet On The Oscars
Sally